Numbers Game

So, just as school is finally settled in to its routine...students and teachers are back and have been for several weeks now -- the "numbers" are coming out. That is, the student enrollment numbers.  Once projected to be at least 1200 more students than last year, the reality is there are about 300 MORE students than last year.  Now, that's still a steady increase ... but a lot less than was projected right in the middle of a heated budget fight.

The explanation doesn't seem to make much sense, either.  Something about transfers in and out of school and in and out of county.  Now, the transfer numbers this year were actually LOWER than they were last year over the same period.  And the estimate of new students was based on the transfer number.  So, if this year's transfer numbers were lower, it seems this year's growth numbers would also be lower. 

On the other hand, the school system did have a challenge in terms of its data management system. Still, it seems staff either arrived at really inaccurate numbers OR knew the real numbers and inflated them to gain leverage in the budget fight. 

Now, the issue of gaining leverage seems to have a significant risk for the school system. First, it was and is clear that the County Commission simply wasn't going to fully fund the school system's budget this year.  So, artificially inflating numbers in the heat of battle would seem to be of little benefit.  Second, the pesky thing with numbers is they eventually become REAL, not estimates.  So, if they were intentionally inflated, someone had to know the truth would be revealed and look bad.  No Director would knowingly want to be exposed in this way.

The most credible explanation, it seems, is that personnel changes and staff error contributed to an inflated number being presented.  While that may be understandable, it certainly shouldn't be the norm.  More questions should have been asked before those numbers were released to the County Commission and the public. 

The bottom line is that our school system is growing and adding students.  300 more this year than last.  And our schools remain poorly funded relative to peer districts.  Transparency and accuracy will go a long way toward building the public's trust as the community seeks solutions and a way forward.